Opinion polls: normal transmission resumes

The Fairfax-Ipsos opinion poll published today indicates that difference between the two parties is settling at between 5% and 6%.

Labor’s share of the two-party-preferred vote after preferences now stands at 53 per cent to 47 per cent for the Coalition enough to see 30 Liberal-National seats fall to Labor.

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When Tony Abbott returned from a sweep of the country to sell his “have a go” budget, he was utterly convinced that he had witnessed a transformation in voter sentiment, and said as much to his MPs. There had been a “surge of confidence in the community”, the Prime Minister declared, with a “renewed appreciation” that the government was back to its “core business” of providing economic security and national security.

As Richie Benaud would have said, “Marvellous example of selective perception that.”  And a slight touch of the delusionals.

Tony Abbott: Eyes wide shut when it comes to public opinion about its policies
Tony Abbott: Eyes wide shut when it comes to public opinion about its policies

If the Labour Party were to be elected, it would be on the basis of a strong flow of Green preferences coming from that party’s 14% primary vote.  One of the downsides of the voting system in Australia is that with 14% of the vote, the Greens should expect around 10 seats. They will probably be lucky to get 2 to 3.  This is not a highly desirable outcome in a democracy.

The problem for the Liberal party is that the right wing of the party is clearly preparing to muster behind Scott Morrison should Tony Abbott be challenged. This may not lead to the Liberal party moving further to the right but it certainly won’t move it back towards the centre which is where it will need to be to win at the next election.

Fifty three percent of the electorate clearly prefers a Left or Left/Centralist government and the Liberal party may be preparing itself for its own special Tea Party moment.

Scott Morrison is smiling a lot lately because he thinks it will make him Treasurer and then Prime Minister
Scott Morrison is smiling a lot lately because he thinks it will make him Treasurer and then Prime Minister

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