The Challenges Malcolm Turnbull is likely to fail

Malcolm Turnbull faces a real dilemma. He was elected to the Prime Ministership by a party who thought he could leave them to electoral victory following the disastrous period of Tony’s leadership. They based this on his popularity with the electorate on a series of policies for which they would not be prepared to legislate.

Malcolm Turnbull has only himself to blame
Malcolm Turnbull has only himself to blame

Turnbull’s popularity is based on the positions he has taken on a number of issues and almost every one of his positions is at variance with those of the bulk of his party and in particular the right wing which exerts considerable influence within Parliamentary party.

The Age has reported a poll shows that many people want to see Mr Turnbull overcome a reluctant party room to

  • enact more humane asylum seeker policies,
  • get going on marriage equality,
  • strengthen the response to climate change
  • take-up of renewable energy
  •  lift funding to schools.

Eighty-one percent of voters back stronger policy on renewable energy. Even among Coalition voters, this figure is 75 per cent.

To date, Turnbull shows no sign of changing Coalition policy on any of these issues. In fact ,on climate change and marriage equality, he has made it clear there will be no policy change.

He’s managed to drag the Coalition back to a 50%/50% position against the Labour Party in the polls.

But this is an erosion of the position which put him at 52% just after he was was elected.

He is slipping and this is probably likely to continue unless he can meet the expectations of the section of the electorate that saw him such an appealing choice to the deeply divisive Tony Abbott.

His popularity with the electorate, and the Coalition’s standing in the polls, will continue erode unless Turnbull can convince his party to make significant changes on key policy issues. the sick and do this he will not meet the expectations of the community that gave him the polling advantage that allowed him to supplant Tony Abbott.

Paul Keating once  said of Andrew Peacock that “a soufflé never rises twice” perhaps Malcolm Turnbull’s political epitaph will be “you can’t nail down a blancmange”

The blancmange: well-presented, tasty, but politically useless
The blancmange: well-presented, tasty, but politically useless

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