What a 10% swing against the Turnbull Government looks like at a Federal election

A disastrous Newspoll showing the Coalition trailing Labor 45-55%, One Nation gaining ground and Malcolm Turnbull’s ratings falling will fuel the alarm and anger in the Coalition as it returns to parliament in the wake of Tony Abbott’s outburst.

Politicians always tell you that only one poll matters.

Don’t believe them.

They look at the swings recorded in Newspoll, at their own margin at the last election and then at their leader. You can bet Malcolm will be staying home on Sunday.

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There are 41 members of the government who will be sweating on a 10% gap between the Government and the Opposition.

Malcolm Turnbull deposed Tony Abbott on the basis of the succession of disastrous polls.  Now it looks as if he is in much the same position himself.

It is unlikely that the swing against the Government  would be as big as predicted in a poll as early as this one, but that will not be much consolation to members sitting on margins less than 5%, some 25 on this current list.

With this kind of swing, it is almost certain that the Coalition would lose Dawson, currently held by closet One Nation candidate George Christensen.  George knows which side his bread is buttered on and he is going to make sure it falls sunny side up.

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There is a list of the seats that the Coalition holds with less than 10%.

It’s long and it gives an indication of the extent of the internal problems facing the Coalition. Unless, this trend can be reversed, the Government faces annihilation. A 10% swing, albeit unlikely would result in the lost of  41 of 76 seats.

Seat Held by Margin
Burt (WA) LIB 6.1
Aston (VIC) LIB 8.2
Banks (NSW) LIB 2.8
Bass (TAS) LIB 4
Bennelong (NSW) LIB 7.8
Bonner (QLD) LNP 3.7
Boothby (SA) LIB 7.1
Bowman (QLD) LNP 8
Braddon (TAS) LIB 2.6
Brisbane (QLD) LNP 4.3
Capricornia (QLD) LNP 0.8
Casey (VIC) LIB 7.2
Corangamite (VIC) LIB 3.9
Cowan (WA) LIB 4.5
Dawson (QLD) LNP 7.6
Deakin (VIC) LIB 3.2
Dickson (QLD) LNP 6.7
Dunkley (VIC) LIB 5.6
Eden-Monaro (NSW) LIB 2.9
Flynn (QLD) LNP 6.5
Forde (QLD) LNP 4.4
Gilmore (NSW) LIB 3.8
Hasluck (WA) LIB 6
Herbert (QLD) LNP 6.2
Higgins (VIC) LIB 9.9
Hindmarsh (SA) LIB 1.9
Hinkler (QLD) LNP 9
La Trobe (VIC) LIB 4
Leichhardt (QLD) LNP 5.7
Lindsay (NSW) LIB 3
Longman (QLD) LNP 6.9
Lyons (TAS) LIB 1.2
Macarthur (NSW) LIB 3.3
Macquarie (NSW) LIB 4.5
O’Connor (WA) LIB v NAT 0.9
Page (NSW) NAT 3.1
Reid (NSW) LIB 3.3
Robertson (NSW) LIB 3.1
Ryan (QLD) LNP 8.5
Solomon (NT) CLP 1.4
Stirling (WA) LIB 9
Swan (WA) LIB 7.3

This represents more than half the coalition members in the lower house. They must be thinking, “If not Malcolm, then who?”

Nothing that Turnbull has been able to do since the last federal election has been able to arrest a slide in the government’s popularity. Everything he does seem to leave himself tangled in indecision.

He could not have done the worst job of handling the penalty rates decision.  He should have said, “I back it.” Or “I don’t back.” But he has done neither, so he has no support whatsoever from either side of the debate.

He’s turning into The Nowhere Man.

Doesn’t have a point of view
Knows not where he’s going to

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