If not Malcolm, then who?

The front page of The Age will make bleak reading for Liberal party parliamentarians today.

Support for the Turnbull government has crashed, according to the latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll, and Labor now holds a thumping 10-point lead over the Coalition in the two-party preferred vote.

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This translates into a loss of 24 seats. A loss of these proportions often condemns a government to at least two terms in opposition.

While there has been a significant swing in the two-party preferred vote support for the GIMPs has remained steady which means that this shift is unlikely to deliver the Labor Party control of the Senate.

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This particular graph outlines the difficulty that both major parties are facing. Their primary vote is now hovering around 33%. There is not much to suggest that the situation will change. The party that wins government will do so on the preferences of the GIMPs.

Turnbull seems to have been hellbent on gaining support of the right-leaning voters of this group, in particular the One Nation voters. If the current poll is any indication, he has been singly unsuccessful in doing this.

A more sensible strategy, particularly for Labor, would be to attract Green voters. They represent by far the largest and most coherent bloc of GIMP voters. It will be much easier for Bill Shorten and the Labor Party to appeal to the group and far more of a challenge for Malcolm Turnbull.

In very simple terms, the breakdown of the voting demographic looks like this.


Clearly, is going to be easy for the the Labor Party to attract Greens preferences. But not entirely impossible for Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberals.

Stopping this kind of nonsense would help.


The other strategy from Malcolm Turnbull and the Liberals is to appeal to the right-leaning labor voters. It’s likely to be a more successful strategy and chasing the Hansonites.

But I digress. One thing is absolutely clear. The days of one of the two major parties being elected in their own right well and truly over.

Members of the Parliamentary party must be giving thought to a successor for Malcolm Turnbull. Recent rumours were circulating around  a leadership pairing of Michaela Cash and Peter Dutton.

Dutton and Cash standing behind respective leaders

 It’s difficult to see that this particular pairing would gain much electoral traction. But it does highlight the problems that Liberals have.

As did Deputy Liberal leader Julie Bishop when she said: “(Malcolm Turnbull) is a can-do prime minister (and) he’s performing strongly.”


 She probably remains the Liberal party’s best bet.

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