It is becoming clear that the way out of the pandemic is for a significant proportion of the population to become vaccinated with two shots of Pfizer or AstraZeneca.
The World Health Organisation believes that herd immunity is achieved when 65% of the population is fully vaccinated.
Six months into the vaccination rollout just under 18% of Australians have received a first shot and 1% has received a second shot. Vaccination rates have accelerated as result of a fourth lockdown in Victoria.
If current progress is maintainedIn Victoria, 2.7 million people will be vaccinated by the end of the year. That’s just under half of the adult population of 5.6 million.
This will require 6.8 million doses of vaccine.
Achieving the WHO standard of 65% for herd immunity by mid-2023 will require around 7.6 million doses.
Achieving 90% will require slightly under 10 million.
All of this assumes that current rates of vaccinations can be maintained, which will almost certainly be problematic.
If we start looking at vaccinating children under 15, supply numbers begin to rose dramatically.
While public discussion remains focused on the numbers of new Covid cases and lockdown, the discussion of the long-term issue of vaccine supply has been lost.
Are any of our public policy decision makers thinking about this?