The UK will show what widespread vaccination with AstraZeneca can achieve.

The UK has been reliant on AstraZeneca for its vaccination program. It now has 64% of the population with two doses and 85% with one dose (presumably all with AstraZeneca). 

By comparison, Australia has 5% with two doses and 20% with one dose (presumably a mixture of AstraZeneca and Pfizer).

From the Guardian: “There is already some good news. While the Pfizer/BioNTech and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines aren’t quite as effective against Delta as they are against the Alpha variant, particularly after one dose, two shots reduce the risk of hospitalisation from Delta infections by 96% and 92% respectively. This is hugely welcome and gives countries a handle on what’s to come.

“If the UK avoids serious damage it will be important for those countries that have been relying on Oxford/AstraZeneca,” says William Hanage, a professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard.

To crush an epidemic of Delta variant, scientists believe 85% of the population need to be protected by a vaccine that prevents all onward transmission.“

There will be two things that Australia may be able to learn from the UK.

The first is what level of community vaccination will protect against large-scale outbreaks of the Delta variant.

The second is the death rate in the community if there is another wave as a result of the Delta variant.

Australia’s population largely unvaccinated and unprotected against another wave of a highly contagious variant of Covid-19.

The deaths from clotting from vaccination with AstraZeneca are well-documented. In Australia, out of 2.1 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine, there have been 24 cases of TTS, one of which has been fatal. (ABC News)

The risks of death from an outbreak of Delta variant of Covid -19 in an unvaccinated population are likely to be dramatically higher than this.