Here is my third Dummies Guide to Roll Outs.
Australia’s total population is 28 million. Lockdowns can be abandoned when we reach 80% vaccination of the eligible adult population of around 18 million, so a target of 80% will be14.4m adults.
So far, 30% of the eligible adult population has received two doses of a vaccine (the model assumes that they have received the AstraZeneca vaccine) which means they are fully vaccinated while 60% adult population has received their first vaccination shot (the model assumes that this group has received the Pfizer vaccine and that they are waiting for a second jab).
Government sources suggest we will have 5 million Pfizer doses to use in August, 4 million in September, 10 million in November and 6 million come December. Pfizer says these deliveries are on track.
I have built a model based around a set of simple assumptions.
I assume you have all seen the models which show the 30% of the population receiving their AstraZeneca jabs.
The simple form of this model looks this.
When the Pfizer doses began arriving in August they were administered to the unvaccinated population and to the population who have received one or no jab. Later, the unvaccinated population will receive their second jab as more vaccines become available.
This is a spreadsheet that explains how the numbers work.
The federal government talks of an eligible adult population population which is people over the age of 16. That is 23m people. 30% of them have already been fully vaccinated, Lets assume with AstraZeneca. Another 50% have had their first jab, let’s assume with Pfizer. There is another 50% that has not been vaccinated at all and they will be waiting for the Pfizer vaccine to arrive between now and Christmas.
There are some things that need to go really well and the model assumes that they do.
The first is that vaccination rate continues to climb steadily to 80% by the end of the year
To do this, vaccinations with Pfizer will need to pick up from September through to the end of the year at a rate of around 630,000 per month for the unvaccinated and around 150,000 for those who have one jab.
That’s a total of 780,000 inoculations per month nationally.
The second is that the delivery of Pfizer vaccines will need spot on time.
And here is some food for thought.
The model shows the pathway to 80% vaccination of the eligible adult population: Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg’s Holy Grail for opening up the economy.
What this graph shows is that just over 50% of the population over school age will be unvaccinated and the vast proportion of the unvaccinated will be schoolchildren.
This means that the group that gathers most frequently, probably has the highest level of social interaction, is probably less likely to follow health regulations, is more likely to bring infection home will not be vaccinated.