What will it take to get 80% vaccination of Australia’s eligible adult population by Christmas?

Here is my third Dummies Guide to Roll Outs.

Australia’s total population is 28 million. Lockdowns can be abandoned when we reach 80% vaccination of the eligible adult population of around 18 million, so a target of 80% will be14.4m adults.

So far, 30% of the eligible adult population has received two doses of a vaccine (the model assumes that they have received the AstraZeneca vaccine) which means they are fully vaccinated while 60% adult population has received their first vaccination shot (the model assumes that this group has received the Pfizer vaccine and that they are waiting for a second jab).

Government sources suggest we will have 5 million Pfizer doses to use in August, 4 million in September, 10 million in November and 6 million come December.  Pfizer says these deliveries are on track.

I have built a model based around a set of simple assumptions.

I assume you have all seen the models which show the 30% of the population receiving their AstraZeneca jabs.

The simple form of this model looks this.

When the Pfizer doses began arriving in August they were administered to the unvaccinated population and to the population who have received one or no jab. Later, the unvaccinated population will receive their second jab as more vaccines become available.

This is a spreadsheet that explains how the numbers work.

The federal government talks of an eligible adult population population which is people over the age of 16. That is 23m people. 30% of them have already been fully vaccinated, Lets assume with AstraZeneca. Another 50% have had their first jab, let’s assume with Pfizer. There is another 50% that has not been vaccinated at all and they will be waiting for the Pfizer vaccine to arrive between now and Christmas.

There are some things that need to go really well and the model assumes that they do.

The first is that vaccination rate continues to climb steadily to 80% by the end of the year

To do this, vaccinations with Pfizer will need to pick up from September through to the end of the year at a rate of around 630,000 per month for the unvaccinated and around 150,000 for those who have one jab.

That’s a total of 780,000 inoculations per month nationally.

The second is that the delivery of Pfizer vaccines will need spot on time.

And here is some food for thought.

The model shows the pathway to 80% vaccination of the eligible adult population: Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg’s Holy Grail for opening up the economy.

What this graph shows is that just over 50% of the population over school age will be unvaccinated and the vast proportion of the unvaccinated will be schoolchildren.

This means that the group that gathers most frequently, probably has the highest level of social interaction, is probably less likely to follow health regulations, is more likely to bring infection home will not be vaccinated.

Contact with an umpire: Unheard of in any code other than AFL.

The Age reports A former grand final umpire says Toby Greene should be suspended for at least two matches. 

“The incident was assessed as intentional umpire contact.” 

Toby Greene and the umpire “bump” during the elimination final. The AGE

In Rugby, Greene would have received a red card: off the ground for the rest of the game and then off to the tribunal. Properly suspended for a season, possibly for life and everybody would say quite rightly so.

And so it should be in this case.

There is absolutely no excuse for this behaviour.

But no doubt there will be and it will all be bullshit.

Anything other than a lifetime suspension will send absolutely wrong message to everybody playing and umpiring the sport.

The problem is: Where do you draw the line? How much some umpire contact is acceptable?

If what Greene did on the field only warrants a two-game suspension (or perhaps even less), what else will players be allowed to get away with in terms of contact with umpires?

What forms of behaviour will surface on suburban grounds all over Melbourne where kids volunteer to umpire games and are regularly abused by disgruntled players and parents?

It’s time for the AFL tribunal to draw a line in the sand.

But will it?

Of course not.

Greene is a big-name. A superstar. He will get the minimum possible penalty that will allow him to play in the finals.

Kids were masks, the teacher doesn’t. Welcome to the land of the free.

From the AGE San Francisco “An unvaccinated, unmasked California primary school teacher who came to school even while visibly sick infected a dozen students with the coronavirus, all too young to be immunised, according to a report published by the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.

The teacher was one of only two staff members at the school in Marin County, San Francisco, who had not been vaccinated. Among the teacher’s 24 students, 12 tested positive for the Delta variant of the coronavirus.

The teacher reportedly read aloud to students while unmasked, despite rules requiring teachers to be masked indoors. Most of the students sitting closest to the front of the class were infected. A minority of those sitting at the back of the class were infected. The teacher reportedly read aloud to students while unmasked, despite rules requiring teachers to be masked indoors.Four parents of children in the class were later infected in the outbreak”. 

Apart from the obvious set of questions about how stupidly self-centredly and wilfully ignorant this particular individual could be, there are other questions about how the school administration could have let this happen.

Nonetheless, the article does mentioned that Marin County in California has a vaccination rate of over 70% but this one individual managed to infect nearly 30 people in one short sharp incident which is a remarkable achievement for which many will hope they are adequately punished.

It is perhaps a timely warning for Australians that shows how easily even states with very high rates of vaccination can have rogue individuals trigger high-intensity outbreaks.

If teachers such as this one are allowed to continue employment in schools while unvaccinated and not wearing masks surely tasks like emptying rubbish bins and cleaning the toilets would be ones that would be appropriate for people with their particular attitudes.

We want clarity on Lockdowns, Infection Numbers and Vaccination Rates, but all we get is Polywaffle

The problem springs from New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Prime Minister Scott Morrison feel the need to hold frequent press conferences. They ran out of sensible things to say many months ago. So now they are engaged in Polywaffle, which politicians who have nothing sensible to say do when confronted by a microphone and a TV camera.

Here is some no-nonsense

Lockdowns

They are designed to limit movement and hence the spread of the virus. At their most extreme, nobody leaves their house. In the first wave of the pandemic in 2020, Chinese authorities were boarding up people’s doors. You want authoritarian, that’s authoritarian

Here is some no-nonsense

Lockdowns

They are designed to limit movement and hence the spread of the virus. At their most extreme, nobody leaves their house. In the first wave of the pandemic in 2020, Chinese authorities were boarding up people’s doors. You want authoritarian, that’s authoritarian.

The greater the degree of movement in lockdown, the faster the spread of the virus.

No one explained this to Gladys Berejiklian, which is why there are 800 cases a day and rising in New South Wales.

Do they work in the long run?

Yes, In Australia, the alternate of widespread vaccination still appears to be at least five months away when shipments of the Pfizer vaccine begin to arrive.

The side-effects of locking up the population are proving to be horrendous. 

The long-term effects of a whole generation of children missing out on kindergarten and school will not be known for many years, but there is no doubt it will be disastrous.

The economy has stalled and the cost of supporting businesses and people out of work will see the budget in deficit for over a decade.

Mental health strains, particularly for working women who bear the brunt of homeschooling and housework, are becoming increasingly apparent.

However, setting target vaccination percentage rates for moving out of lockdown may not be as simple as it sounds.

The UK, which has 60% of the adult population fully vaccinated, removed all public-health lockdown restrictions, now has 800 hospital admissions per day and a health system in crisis.

Infection Numbers

Infection numbers in both Victoria and New South Wales are rising.

The growth In infection numbers in New South Wales appears to continue exponentially, while it may be slowing in Victoria. However, the absolute numbers are quite different: over 800 per day in NSW, the high 70s in Victoria.

Why are these numbers important?

In a study conducted at Yale University, it was found that in “an unmitigated environment—where no one is vaccinated or wearing masks, one person will infect maybe 3.5 or 4 other people.” 

What should be worrying Gladys Berejiklian is that the NSW 800 daily infections could quickly turn into 2000 a day given the total virus contagion rates.

Victorian CMO Brett Sutton will be worried that Victoria 80 a day could turn into 300 very quickly.

Vaccination Rates.

Morrison and Berejiklian hold out an 80% vaccination rate as the point for relaxing health regulations.

This is 80% of the adult population, not the total population. The total population includes young children who are susceptible to infection.

Relaxing the health regulations with 80% of the adult population fully vaccinated means that  40% of the total population would be vaccinated. This leaves 60% of the total population, the vast majority of whom would be young children, unvaccinated.

That would be a recipe for disaster, as the situation in the UK has shown.

Reaching coverage of the total NSW population will be many months away, possibly six or seven.

Projection of current rollout rates to reach blanket coverage of the total population of NSW

The problem for the NSW Premier is the period of uncertainty before a sufficient level of coverage from vaccination is reached. 

We want clarity on Lockdowns, Infection Numbers and Vaccination Rates, but we get Polywaffle.

The problem springs from New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Prime Minister Scott Morrison feel the need to hold frequent press conferences. They ran out of sensible things to say many months ago. So now they are engaged in Polywaffle, which politicians who have nothing sensible to say do when confronted by a microphone and a TV camera.

Here is some no-nonsense

Lockdowns

They are designed to limit movement and hence the spread of the virus. At their most extreme, nobody leaves their house. In the first wave of the pandemic in 2020, Chinese authorities were boarding up people’s doors. You want authoritarian, that’s authoritarian.

The greater the degree of movement in lockdown, the faster the spread of the virus.

No one explained this to Gladys Berejiklian, which is why there are 800 cases a day and rising in New South Wales.

Do they work in the long run?

Yes, In Australia, the alternate of widespread vaccination still appears to be at least five months away when shipments of the Pfizer vaccine begin to arrive.

The side-effects of locking up the population are proving to be horrendous. 

The long-term effects of a whole generation of children missing out on kindergarten and school will not be known for many years, but there is no doubt it will be disastrous.

The economy has stalled and the cost of supporting businesses and people out of work will see the budget in deficit for over a decade.

Mental health strains, particularly for working women who bear the brunt of homeschooling and housework, are becoming increasingly apparent.

However, setting target vaccination percentage rates for moving out of lockdown may not be as simple as it sounds.

The UK, which has 60% of the adult population fully vaccinated, removed all public-health lockdown restrictions, now has 800 hospital admissions per day and a health system in crisis.

Infection Numbers

Infection numbers in both Victoria and New South Wales are rising.

The growth In infection numbers in New South Wales appears to continue exponentially, while it may be slowing in Victoria. However, the absolute numbers are quite different: over 800 per day in NSW, the high 70s in Victoria.

Why are these numbers important?

In a study conducted at Yale University, it was found that in “an unmitigated environment—where no one is vaccinated or wearing masks, one person will infect maybe 3.5 or 4 other people.” 

What should be worrying Gladys Berejiklian is that the NSW 800 daily infections could quickly turn into 2000 a day given the total virus contagion rates.

Victorian CMO Brett Sutton will be worried that Victoria 80 a day could turn into 300 very quickly.

Vaccination Rates.

Morrison and Berejiklian hold out an 80% vaccination rate as the point for relaxing health regulations.

This is 80% of the adult population, not the total population. The total population includes young children who are susceptible to infection.

Relaxing the health regulations with 80% of the adult population fully vaccinated means that  40% of the total population would be vaccinated. This leaves 60% of the total population, the vast majority of whom would be young children, unvaccinated.

That would be a recipe for disaster, as the situation in the UK has shown.

Reaching coverage of the total NSW population will be many months away, possibly six or seven.

The problem for the NSW Premier is the period of uncertainty before a sufficient level of coverage from vaccination is reached. 

Message to Premier Dan Andrews: Punishing the many for the sins of a few is never good policy

Dan Andrews appears to be getting a bit frayed around the edges of late.

It is not surprising. He has been standing on the front line throughout the entire pandemic with only a break after his serious fall when James Merlino stood in. But the strain of the Delta virus and the recalcitrance of sections of the Victorian public are beginning to show. Because now he’s getting angry and it is not helping very much.

Dan is now an angry man

He extended the current lockdown by two weeks, imposing a curfew and closing playgrounds. He argued the case for both measures and as it happened the extension is probably going to be necessary.

The problem was that the existing restrictions were not being observed but nor were they being enforced.

The vast majority of the Melbourne population who are observing restrictions have the right to ask why the restrictions are not being more rigorously policed.

The egregious violations of last weekend, in particular the engagement party in North Caulfield and a pub crawl in Richmond, were probably only two tips of a very large iceberg.

The Guardian reported The engagement party, which was held in the house of a senior person in the orthodox Jewish community, was roundly condemned by other people in the Jewish community in Melbourne

Andrews commented “You’ll be found, you’ll be fined, and as one particular family is learning, you become famous.”

“They’ve done the wrong thing and people have views about that. It’s selfish. They are shitty choices and they will keep us all locked down for longer than we should be. I’m angry, we’re all angry.”

But we shouldn’t be surprised, this kind of behaviour had probably been going on for weeks.

There is significant anecdotal evidence of widespread social gathering around childrens’ playgrounds and this must be an element in the spread of the virus.

Were the police and health authorities completely unaware of this?

Why has there not been some effort to limit this kind of behaviour?

It is all very well for Dan Andrews to be getting angry but that doesn’t stop people congregating in public places, it doesn’t make them wear masks and it doesn’t stop them having covert gathering for whatever reason.

What we now need is a demonstration that the regulations and restrictions of the lockdown are being enforced and the transgressors are being identified and punished.

Is our Online learning model working? Let’s be brutally honest.

Having seen a little of the online learning being offered to my grandson, I am beginning to think that the current model is fundamentally flawed. This article is not a criticism of the people who are offering the programs, it’s a critique of the fundamental assumptions of current online learning programs.

Normal classrooms are run on the basis of a teacher and a group of children interacting with each other and the curriculum. The teacher organises activities that ensure that the children learn.

There have been change over the last 50 years but the model has remained much the same.

A shift from teacher to child focused learning

In this model, children are taught how to learn from a very early age. It begins at kindergarten in most cases. It’s not something we think about very often, if at all.

In each of these classrooms, the teacher is a presence, going around directing the children’s learning, motivating them, maintaining order and encouraging interactions between the children.

The fundamental assumptions is that the learning is based on the ongoing interaction between the teacher, the pupils and the learning material.

Another fundamental assumption that education is a decentralised model with the school within walking distance of most homes in Australia. This means there are classes delivered every morning within walking distance of most homes in Australia, usually i.e. when we are not in in lockdown.

But why are thousands of different program classes being delivered online every morning when we are in lockdown. Why does the ABC not deliver one Prep Grade Class? It’s been doing Play School for years.

It’s just the concept.

The concept would be that there would be a large national database of, for example Grade 2 science, designed by Grade 2 to science experts that Grade 2 science students could log on to and complete programs and get credits.

The concept of decentralised model in a Covid / Lockdown world may not be the appropriate one. It may be time to step back and question whether the current school system has outlived its usefulness.

Should teachers be teaching from their living room to a group of children doing remote learning on iPads? We need to step back and ask whether this is the education that is going to be the best for our children.

As we learn to live with Covid, we are going to need to think outside the current box when it comes educating our children.

Nurses refusing the jab in Winchester, Va crystallises the vaccination debate.

The Valley Health nurses stand against mandatory vaccination highlights the problem confronting employers and individuals.

Their employer, Winchester Medical Center, has delivered an ultimatum: get vaccinated or get the sack.

Some of the nurses value individual freedom over employment.

From left: Brittany Watson, Katie Hart, Dawn Carlisle and Amanda Mackanos demonstrate against employer vaccine mandates outside Winchester Medical Center in Winchester, Va., on Aug. 10. (Duncan Slade for The Washington Post)All

Even amongst a small minority of healthcare professionals there is hesitancy over perceived risk of exceedingly rare but serious side effects. The nurses argue that their individual right to decide whether they are vaccinated outweighs their employer’s rights to require them to be vaccinated.

They don’t appeared to have considered whether the patients have a right to be treated by vaccinated staff. And this is where this individual freedom argument breaks down. It comes at a huge risk to the patients.

The hospital argues the nurses do have a choice to make but so does Valley Health

It argues it has a responsibility to provide a safe environment for hospital staff and patients and this includes providing a fully vaccinated workforce.

Patients had been calling, asking how they would know if their surgeon was vaccinated.

So it would appear that the situation is simple.

The nurses claim they have the right to choose not to be vaccinated but also presumably to continue working.

The hospital has chosen to make vaccination a condition of employment, given unvaccinated staff pose health threat to patients.

The only voice not being heard at the moment is that of the patients.

It’s very simple really.

They should be asked if they wish to be treated by vaccinated or unvaccinated staff.

It’s not difficult to imagine what their choice would be.

However, it may be that the hospital will need to design vaccinated and unvaccinated wards. That would be interesting.

Another humiliating Bledisloe Cup defeat for the Wallabies

The All Blacks defeated the Wallabies 58 to 23 last night to secure the Bledisloe Cup for the 19th straight year. It is also the 35th straight year that the Wallabies have lost at Eden Park.

Yet every year members of the Wallaby team front the media with statements about the All Black team losing their aura, showing signs of weakness, or some other bullshit. It’s normally followed by a significant defeat. As it was last night.

The ABs are returning to the form of old.

Rieko Ioane’s intercept try opened the scoring for the All Blacks in game two of the Bledisloe Cup.(AP/Photosport: Brett Phibbs)

And today was an amazing statement. The Wallabies didn’t “respect the ball”

What creative genius thought that one up?

What about ” We were beaten by a better team.”?

Haven’t heard that one for a while.

Perhaps it was the weather, but Eden Park was only half full last night. Have Auckland Rugby fans become sick of watching the All Blacks beat the Wallabies at Eden Park?

It is a sad day for rugby if that is the case.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian thinks ” this trend will continue for at least the next few days”

Do none of her advisers understand anything about the experimental growth rates of pandemics?

This is not going to stop anytime soon. This is indicative of a growth rate that is driving numbers almost vertically.

Gladys Berejiklian is writing a textbook on public policy failure in a coronavirus pandemic. Most notable failures have come through doing nothing,

Particularly in the US. https://timothyrhaslett.wordpress.com

The tragedy with Berejiklian is that she has been trying and getting it disastrously wrong.

And now the people of New South Wales are paying a very high price and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

And so will the entire nation.