How many doses will Australia need to reach the magical 80%? What happens next?

We are close to 80% first dose and we are 50% fully vaccinated.

This graphic shows an Eligible population of 20.6 million. That means people over 19.

But the graphic doesn’t tell the whole story.

This is what the whole story looks like.

Figures change on a daily basis, but for Australia to reach 80% of the eligible population roughly 1.4 million people need a first shot. That’s the blue bar in the graph

Indications are that should occur within a week.

Then just over 7.5 million people and doses for 80% of the population to be fully vaccinated. That’s the orange and blue bars in the graph

This is the schedule that the government and Pfizer have agreed will be the arrival of Pfizer doses in Australia. It’s so total of 37m.

We can assume that the 10 million doses that arrived in February this year were all used up.

What we don’t know is what proportion of the 15 million doses of Pfizer that arrived in August and September have been used up. There had been indications that Pfizer supply is problematic once again.

We don’t know how many people have been vaccinated with AstraZeneca but the numbers will have been increasing and 300,000 doses of Moderna have arrived in late September.

Worst case is Australia will need 7.5m doses Pfizer November and December, well within its allocation of 12m.

That will leave 4.5m Pfizer doses in addition to Moderna in 2021.

The bad news Is that Australia goes into 2022 with 9.5 million people unvaccinated.

The first vast majority of these will be school children who will be mixing together and transmitting the virus and then taking it home to their unvaccinated parents.

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