Many of the fledgeling democracy are struggling. The democratic experiments in Egypt, Thailand, Iraq, Syria and Ukraine are faltering, to say nothing of the travesty that exists in countries such as Zimbabwe and Russia. Because there appears to be some commonality in these situations, it suggests that there is a widespread pattern of such failure and that the democratic system itself is fundamentally incapable of dealing with a situation it faces.
In many of the countries where democracy is failing there are strong divisions along ethnic, national or religious grounds. Traditionally, one group has monopolised government and suppressed opposition. The democratic elections may completely reverse this power balance but the process of monopoly and suppression often continues. When this happens, it is likely to be followed by civil disobedience that frequently escalates into armed uprising aimed at overthrowing the democratically elected government. The problem appears to be that large sections of the community believe they have the right to forcibly overthrow a government they do not like, despite having taken part in democratic process to elect that government. What appears to be poorly understood is that participation in a democracy carries the responsibility of abiding by the decision of the majority regardless of how much you disagree with the government.
In many countries, the electoral process is deeply flawed and can give rise to debate over, and dissension from, the electoral outcome. When this factor is combined with ethnic, national or religious divisions, the results can be extremely destabilising.
The difficulty with this method of influencing the political process is that intransigent on both sides escalates the conflict to a point of no compromise. Either the opposition is successful and the government is deposed or the government prevails and the opposition is crushed. Neither outcome is the basis for ongoing democratic government. Once the pattern of revolution and revolt is established as the means for changing government, it becomes very difficult to revert to the ballot box.
The final confounding element is where one sectional interest has the support of a powerful international neighbour that supports a particular ethnic, national or religious group. This powerful ally may be moved to intervene in the politics across the border.
The situation in Ukraine is an explosive combination of all of these particular factors.
Large sections of the community were disappointed at the decision of deposed Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych not to join the EU. Street demonstrations escalated to armed conflict between protesters and the government. This led to the opposition taking control of the parliament. The opposition is naive to believe that having effectively overthrown the democratically elected government through armed force, it is likely to be able to hold onto government using the democratic process.
Enter Vladimir Putin who has played his political cards with consummate skill. He claims Russia has been “invited” to provide military support for the deposed democratically elected government and also claims that Russia is defending the rights of ethnic Russians living in the Ukraine. What’s not to like about the guy? A regular peoples’ hero! The fact that the Russians have their major European naval base on the Crimean Peninsula is entirely beside the point.
Ukraine is an example of what a delicate balancing act a functioning democracy is. Governments govern with the consent of the people but the people must consent to being governed for the electoral term. There is no second bite of the cherry after an election; you have to wait until the end of the electoral cycle. The other side of this equation is that an elected government does not have a mandate to implement policies that unduly advantage its support base or unduly disadvantage those who supported the opposition.
A government elected with 52% of the popular vote must still govern in the interests of the other 48%. Failure to do this on a massive scale can lead to civil unrest and as the events in the Ukraine have shown, it is very difficult to climb back up this particularly slippery slope.
Tim Haslett's Blog 