A majority of Americans did not vote for Trump

Some interesting data on the Us Presidential election:

ABC reports on “Turnout for vote in Presidential election

Trump received just 25.6 per cent of the total vote. Let that sink in. Only one in four Americans actually picked him to be president.

 Mind you, while Clinton actually won the popular vote — only one in four Americans wanted her as president as well. The remaining 46.9 per cent?

They didn’t vote.

Turnout for the election was just 53.1 per cent.

Trump got 1.1 million fewer votes than John McCain in 2008 and 2 million fewer voters than Mitt Romney in 2012. Given both of those former candidates lost in their respective elections, you’d think Trump would’ve lost?

Well, Clinton got 7 million fewer voters than Obama in 2012.”

It makes some sobering reading.

While there is a lot of handwringing over Trump’s success, he only got 25% of the eligible vote. It’s about the same proportion that Clinton got. Hardly a ringing endorsement of either candidate.

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By Australian standards, neither candidate received a mandate

 But to suggest, as many in the media have, that America has voted for Trump is simply not true. America didn’t vote for Trump and it didn’t vote for Clinton either. It’s reasonable to speculate that nearly half of the eligible voting population didn’t want either of them.

There could be endless speculation about how they would vote under an Australian-style compulsory voting system.

The plain fact of the matter are that these people couldn’t, or couldn’t be bothered, voting. If you want an argument that suggests democracy is not working in the US, this is where you would start.

The other interesting aspect is that  Clinton was not able to maintain Obama’s vote. It’s difficult to say whether these 7 million voters switched to Trump, although his success in the rustbelt state would suggest this might be the case.

It is also highly possible that the decline in Clinton’s vote was a factor in Trump’s rise.

One thing is certain: if there is a candidate from either party who can mobilise the apathetic, that candidate will win in a landslide.

 

Donald Trump: the nightmare scenario for the Republican Party

It is becoming increasingly likely that Donald Trump will be the Republican Party nomination for the presidential election.There is clearly profound disquiet amongst the party about this possibility and plans are afoot to derail his campaign. But it’s a high-risk strategy.

The difficulty for the Republican Party in attacking Trump is that they may wind up alienating their presidential nominee and, potentially, the next US president. If he is elected to the presidency, Trump will not be beholden to the party establishment in any way and while the Republicans may be glad to have a Republican incumbent, he may not prove tractable to any form of control or influence.

Trump may also carry a fairly deep-seated resentment because the establishment of the Republican Party fought him so hard during the primaries.

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Donald Trump sends a message to the Republican Party establishment

The other part of the nightmare scenario is that a significant proportion of the Republican representatives in both the Senate and the Congress may decide to oppose (President) Trump, effectively handing control of both houses to the Democrats.