The realities of achieving 80% vaccination numbers by Christmas.

At the beginning of September, 37% of the eligible adult population has been fully vaccinated and just under 60% has a first dose, nationally.

The goal for opening up the economy that Morrison and Frydenberg keep exhorting the states to adhere to, is 80% fully vaccinated. Whether it’s a good idea or not is highly debatable.

At the beginning of September, 37% had been fully vaccinated and 60% had a first dose.

The adult population just under 20m.

80% of that, often called the eligible adult population is 16m

Just under 6m have been fully vaccinated.

We know that just under 60% have received a first vaccination. That’s 9.6m people who have received 9.6m doses so far. They will require 9.6m to become fully vaccinated.

That leaves 11 million people who have received no vaccination and who will need to receive two Pfizer doses before Christmas.

That will require 22m doses.

That’s a total of 29.4m doses needed between the beginning of September and the end of December. 

These are the numbers of Pfizer doses that both the government and Pfizer agree will arrive in Australia before the end of December. It’s a total of 19m, well short of the 27.6m required.

The disturbing aspect of this graph is that the vast proportion of the delivery, roughly 60%, occurs in November and December. The logistics of delivering this will be horrendous.

To achieve 80% vaccination of the eligible adult population, the federal government will need to administer 29.4 million doses, most of which doesn’t have, in the next four months. It managed just 21m in the first eight months of the year.

Clearly, it will need to administer all the Pfizer that arrive in the country almost immediately and hope that the uptake of AstraZeneca increases significantly in the meantime.

The pigs are fully fuelled and ready for take-off at the end of the runway.

2 thoughts on “The realities of achieving 80% vaccination numbers by Christmas.

  1. I completed a less detailed Fermi analysis and arrived at the same conclusion. I don’t know why anyone else ie the media, the opposition etc have completed a similar anaylsis. Instead we consume politicians words in hope

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