The realities of Australia achieving 80% vaccination numbers by Christmas

At the beginning of September, 37% of the eligible adult population has been fully vaccinated and just under 60% has a first dose, nationally.

The goal for opening up the economy that Morrison and Frydenberg keep exhorting the states to adhere to, is 80% fully vaccinated. Whether it’s a good idea or not is highly debatable. 

At the beginning of September, 37% had been fully vaccinated and 60% had a first dose.

The adult population just under 20m.

80% of that, often called the eligible adult population is 16m

Just under 6m have been fully vaccinated. 

We know that just under 60% have received a first vaccination. That’s 9.6m people who have received 9.6m doses so far. They will require 9.6m to become fully vaccinated.

That leaves 11 million people who have received no vaccination and who will need to receive two Pfizer doses before Christmas.

That will require 22m doses.

That’s a total of 29.4m doses needed between the beginning of September and the end of December. 

These are the numbers of Pfizer doses that both the government and Pfizer agree will arrive in Australia before the end of December. It’s a total of 19m, well short of the 27.6m required. 

The disturbing aspect of this graph is that the vast proportion of the delivery, roughly 60%, occurs in November and December. The logistics of delivering this will be horrendous.

To achieve 80% vaccination of the eligible adult population, the federal government will need to administer 29.4 million doses, most of which doesn’t have, in the next four months. It managed just 21m in the first eight months of the year.

Clearly, it will need to administer all the Pfizer that arrive in the country almost immediately and hope that the uptake of AstraZeneca increases significantly in the meantime.

The pigs are fully fuelled and ready for take-off at the end of the runway

3 thoughts on “The realities of Australia achieving 80% vaccination numbers by Christmas

  1. Have you not read today’s paper? 5 million doses are coming this week. Have you factored in AstraZeneca? Your article focuses on pfizer only….. = fake news

    • See my Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/timhaslett465/ There will be 10m Pfizer shots in total Arriving in September. And yes I have read the paper. It is clear that many people are not taking AstraZeneca even though it is available. This is obvious if you look at the stagnating first vaccination rates. In addition, there are 1m Moderna shots, with these make a difference remains to be seen. Thank you for your informed commentary.

  2. Pingback: How Australians can make sense of the vaccination supply numbers | Tim Haslett's Blog

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