The Victorian justice system is also falling short when dealing with the ordinary citizens

On New Year’s Eve, friends and neighbours of ours, who are both in the 70s, were involved in a terrible accident. They were sitting waiting for a tram when a car did a reverse U-turn and slammed them up against a cobblestone wall. They both suffered severe leg injuries which required multiple surgical interventions and skin grafts. One of them also suffered a fractured pelvis. 

It’s now April. They are just out of hospital and require physiotherapy three times a week and have had their mobility severely limited. The impact of this is clearly visible when you see them. They are exceptionally resilient and have survived the ordeal with remarkable tenacity. 

However, the person who was driving the car was very heavily under the influence of recreational drugs. He has a history of drug abuse and of traffic offences. The police have charged him with a series of offences, serious enough to be heard in the County Court, where the minimum sentence was three years and the maximum was 10. 

The County Court has gone into recession and this case will not be heard. Rather, it will be heard in the Magistrates Court, which is not gone into recession. The difference is significant because in the Magistrates Court, a maximum sentence this drug addled moron will receive is three years. Exactly the minimum sentence he would have received in the County Court.

It leads to the question of why the Magistrates Court is hearing cases when the County Court isn’t. And it also raises the question of why the County Court is not able to conduct its business by the many technologies available for organisational communication.

The function of the penal system is fivefold. 

The first is punishment which will be meted out to those who have infringed the law and injured other people. 

The second is protection of society where society will be protected from people who, by the nature of their crimes, represent a threat to everyone. 

The third is retribution where suffering of the victims of crime are considered in the sentencing of the criminal. 

The fourth is rehabilitation which will take place (one hopes) while the convicted individual is incarcerated. 

The fifth is to set an example where the rest of society sees that the commission of crimes will be punished and individuals held to account.

On this list, the Victorian justice system doesn’t get a pass mark on the first consideration of punishment because the quantum of punishment has been greatly reduced. 

It doesn’t get a pass mark on the second of protecting society from the continued behaviour of the criminal because this individual will be let loose much earlier in society and may continue offending in the way that he has in the past. 

It doesn’t get a pass mark on the third where the suffering of the individuals is taken into account and rightly accounted for. 

It’s mark on the fourth is held over. However, given the record of this individual, rehabilitation looks to be unlikely.

It doesn’t get a pass mark on the fifth because this case the individual is seen as getting an advantage from a global pandemic.

So, while many are concerned that George Pell been treated leniently, the functioning of the justice system in Victoria appears to be failing in this particular case.

It’s not a case that involves a Prince of the Church. It’s just a case involving two people innocently sitting on tram stop for whom the functioning of the Victorian justice system has fallen badly short of the standards we would expect of it.

How was the Victorian Court of Appeal and a County Court jury so badly at odds with the High Court over George Pell?

George Pell has walked free because the unanimous decision of the High Court has made it clear that there was “reasonable doubt” about whether he could have committed the sexual abuse of which he was accused. Pell was found guilty by a Victorian County Court jury and then had his appeal rejected by the Victorian Court of Appeal.

But the High Court of Australia rejected these decisions unanimously, upholding Pell’s appeal.

The Age: The High Court found evidence given by other witnesses who were at St Patrick’s should have raised doubts about whether Cardinal Pell had an opportunity to commit the crimes he was accused of.

The High Court found this evidence should have caused a jury to have reasonable doubt, and should also have caused the Court of Appeal majority of Chief Justice Anne Ferguson and Court of Appeal President Chris Maxwell to have misgivings about the jury’s verdict.

Chief Justice Anne Ferguson and Justice Chris Maxwell (both wrong according to the unanimous decision of the High Court) and Justice Mark Weinberg, who had his dissenting judgement justified.

The findings of the seven High Court judges were unanimous.

Many will now say that it has been a cruel injustice for Pell to be in prison for 400 days before he was released (albeit on a technicality). Given the decision of the High Court, it’s difficult to argue against this.

Others will point to the fact that Pell did not subject himself to cross examination during his trial and wonder why.

A third group will see this as a massive setback for all sufferers of sexual abuse, especially in the Roman Catholic Church. The High Court decision will also be a massive disincentive for other victims of sexual abuse to submit themselves to be trauma of reliving their experiences in the hope of bringing their perpetrators to justice.

Some commentators have said that it’s time to end trial by jury in these cases and have a trial by a sole judge. But two of the most senior judicial to officers in Victoria dismissed Pell’s original appeal, Chief Justice Anne Ferguson and Justice Chris Maxwell, who is the president of the Court of Appeal, are two such judges. (However, they would not hear cases in the County Court. This being the task of lesser mortals.)

his question goes to the heart of the public’s confidence in the justice system in Victoria where the decisions of the County Court jury and the Court of Appeal have not stood up to scrutiny by the country’s most senior judges.

How was the Victorian Court of Appeal and a County Court jury so badly at odds with the High Court over George Pell?

George Pell has walked free because the unanimous decision of the High Court has made it clear that there was “reasonable doubt” about whether he could have committed the sexual abuse of which he was accused. Pell was found guilty by a Victorian County Court jury and then had his appeal rejected by the Victorian Court of Appeal.

But the High Court of Australia rejected these decisions unanimously, upholding Pell’s appeal.

The Age: The High Court found evidence given by other witnesses who were at St Patrick’s should have raised doubts about whether Cardinal Pell had an opportunity to commit the crimes he was accused of.

The High Court found this evidence should have caused a jury to have reasonable doubt, and should also have caused the Court of Appeal majority of Chief Justice Anne Ferguson and Court of Appeal President Chris Maxwell to have misgivings about the jury’s verdict.

Chief Justice Anne Ferguson and Justice Chris Maxwell (both wrong according to the unanimous decision of the High Court) and Justice Mark Weinberg, who had his dissenting judgement justified.

The findings of the seven High Court judges were unanimous.

Many will now say that it has been a cruel injustice for Pell to be in prison for 400 days before he was released (albeit on a technicality). Given the decision of the High Court, it’s difficult to argue against this.

Others will point to the fact that Pell did not subject himself to cross examination during his trial and wonder why.

A third group will see this as a massive setback for all sufferers of sexual abuse, especially in the Roman Catholic Church. The High Court decision will also be a massive disincentive for other victims of sexual abuse to submit themselves to be trauma of reliving their experiences in the hope of bringing their perpetrators to justice.

Some commentators have said that it’s time to end trial by jury in these cases and have a trial by a sole judge. But two of the most senior judicial to officers in Victoria dismissed Pell’s original appeal, Chief Justice Anne Ferguson and Justice Chris Maxwell, who is the president of the Court of Appeal, are two such judges. (However, they would not hear cases in the County Court. This being the task of lesser mortals.)

This question goes to the heart of the public’s confidence in the justice system in Victoria where the decisions of the County Court jury and the Court of Appeal have not stood up to scrutiny by the country’s most senior judges.

Making the 5: 2 Diet work, shifting to 2:1.

In March, I published a blog entitled Making the 5-2 Diet work when I had been on the 5:2 Diet for just over five weeks. I explained that I had been on the Diet in 2015 and provided a comparison of results.

This is an update of current results after just over nine weeks.

So far, in 2020, I have lost 9.2kg in 66 days. In a similar period, in 2015 I lost 7.4kg. The results is despite a plateau over the last six days and a couple of nasty peaks on eating days between days 45 and 50. (Birthday party, dinner out)

As I have not found fasting difficult, I have changed the pattern from five days eating in two days fasting to two days eating and one day fasting. ( 5:2 to 2:1). I began this on day 50. This is graph of the comparative results.

The trendline is no different but this is clearly a result of the plateau of the last six days which I cannot explain as I have not changed my eating habits between fasting days

There are quite different patterns. In 2015, I lost almost no weight over the last 30 days of the diet. However, there was a rapid loss between days 20 and 50, a pattern that has not been repeated this year.

In 2020, the weight loss has been steady and consistent. However, it remains to be seen whether the current plateau will be a long-term one, as it was in 2015.

I am a modeller. For people to have confidence in my models, they need to be able to see their structure, the data that goes in and the results that come out.

There is a lot of talk about the need for Prime Minister Scott Morrison to show the Australian public the models that he is basing his Covid-19 policy decisions on. So far, he has been reluctant to do so.

There are four aspects to keep in mind when discussing models.

The first is that they are simplifications of the real world. A good model strips away the irrelevant material and focuses on causal structures that drive the behaviour that is being studied. But they are always simplifications. British statistician George E. P. Box famously said “All models are wrong, but some are useful”  

The second is that models are built for two reasons: the first is to find out all what went wrong in the past and the second is to find out what might go wrong in future. With that in mind it is worse remembering what Niels Bohr quantum theorist and Nobel Prize winner said: “It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”

These first and second aspects create scepticism about model validity in the minds of the well-informed and the not so less well-informed.

The third is that the model must replicate the behaviour of the real world. If it does this, you can be reasonably certain that you have got one of the more or less correct models.

The fourth is that people will have confidence in a model when the model tells a ‘story” that people can understand and relate to.

A Causal Loop Diagram of the Heroin Trade

Starting in the middle, the story goes like this. When you seize a shipment of heroin, the amount of heroin in the community goes down, the price up and increased supply will automatically take advantage of the increased prices. Increased prices lead to crime and crime leads to the arrest of drug addicts who go to jail where they remain drug addicts. When addicts are arrested, dealers are short of clients and have an oversupply of heroin. To gain new customers, they give some of the drug away and create new addicts. When the addicts are released from prison, they join the now larger pool of addicts in the community.

The outcome of seizures of large quantities of heroin not only speeds up the next delivery service to create a larger number of addicts in the community.

This model is very effective in getting people to understand the causal structures underlying the heroin trade. What it lacks is any quantification. This can only be done by building mathematical models.

Once the causal structure has been established, it is then possible to build a mathematical model. Without a mathematical model, it is not possible to make any useful predictions about the future behaviour of the system.

Both the causal model and the mathematical model are built in conjunction with experts and practitioners in the field. The process of constructing a model is an important element in building the confidence of the client group in the outcomes of the model.

This is a model of a medical testing laboratory designed to understand the staffing requirements for an organisation needed to run a peak efficiency 24 hours a day.

Testing Lab model: Sitting under this model is a thousand lines of code 

Creating a good story creates a huge challenge for the model builder who will often have highly specialised skills not just in modelling but also in their specific and possibly complex discipline. But not necessarily in storytelling. The skill  in building confidence in a model lies in being able to explain it to the audience.

In the long run, it really doesn’t matter how good your model is if you can’t explain it to your audience.

I suspect that this may be why Morrison is hesitating to make the models public.

When civil disobedience collides with pathological stupidity, the result will be disastrous.

There are some things that are so stupid you really don’t know where to begin explaining it. But in the case of these two attention seeking zealots, there is nothing you can say to them that will make them understand that a large number of the people have gathered in the churches will now die.

Not only that, a large number of people who have contact with those people before they actually die, will also die.

R.R. Reno, editor of First Things, a prominent conservative Christian magazine, recently said in an article where he said churches should remain open: ““When we worship, we join the Christian rebellion against the false lordship of the principalities and powers that claim to rule our lives, including sickness and death,” 

CBS News: Louisiana church packed for services again despite charges against pastor amid pandemic

 Life Tabernacle Church in the city of Central, where pastor Tony Spell has been holding services. Hours earlier on Tuesday, Spell was issued a summons for holding services previously at the church in violation of the governor’s order banning gatherings.

CBS News: Florida pastor arrested after church seen jammed for Sunday service during pandemic

“We received an anonymous tip that Dr. Rodney Howard-Browne refused a request to temporarily stop holding large gatherings at his church,” said Hillsborough County Sheriff Chad Chronister. “Instead, he was encouraging his large congregation to meet at his church.”

Mass murderer or Pastor?
Pastor Rodney Howard-Browne seen in a booking photo.
HERNANDO COUNTY SHERIFF’S OFFICE

A violation of the county’s “safer-at-home” order is considered second-degree misdemeanors punishable by up to 60 days in jail and fines of up to $500. Howard-Browne posted bond of $500 and was released.

The arguments, in a nutshell, are (1) that the Church is an essential service like a hospital or a police station or a Fire Brigade and (2) that it is an American citizens constitutional right to practice their religion.

How do you explain to religious zealot who believes they are safe from infection simply because they are praying, that the virus doesn’t work like that. If you come in contact with someone who is infected, there is a very high probability that you will be affected too.

And if you are old or your family members are old, there is a very high probability that you will die.

The US has now far outstripped Italy in terms of the number of people infected. Idiots like these two will only increase the exponential rate of infection.

There is an excellent dynamic graphic in this article that shows the rapid increase in infection in the United States which now has more cases of the virus in any other country which is reporting them.

US is on coronavirus trajectory similar to Italy, Mike Pence says

This is what happened in France:

Megachurch meeting in Mulhouse seeded France’s coronavirus epidemic

How one meeting of religious zealots sparked infection of an entire nation.

Some useful information about COVID-19 with particular reference to Victoria.

These graphs are taken from a lengthy but very useful article that was published in The Age today.

How long does the virus live on surfaces? What about takeaway food? Your COVID-19 questions answered

There is some indication that the rate of increase is slowing. However, this does not mean that the number of cases is not increasing. It’s just that it’s increasing less slowly.

The next graphs are a breakdown of the confirmed cases in Victoria and then by gender.

It appears that more men have caught it. It also appears as if there have been two waves of infection in the female population.

What’s closed

Indoor venues such as pubs, clubs, casinos, cinemas, and places of worship
Auction houses
Real-estate auctions and open-house inspections
Personal services such as beauty therapists, waxing and tanning salons, nail bars, spas, massage and tattoo parlours (excluding related health services like physiotherapy)
Amusement parks, playgrounds, skateparks and arcades, indoor and outdoor play centres
Gyms, health clubs, fitness or yoga centres, and public swimming pools
Galleries, museums, national institutions, historic sites, libraries and community centres and facilities such as halls or RSLs
Strip clubs and brothels
Outdoor boot camps – but personal training (with just two people) can continue
Retail outlets at international airports

You should stay home unless you are:

Shopping for what you need (such as food or supplies to help keep you at home such as sports mats)
Getting medical care
Exercising outside (but you must stick with just those in your household or a maximum of one other person)
Attending work or school if you cannot attend either remotely
People can also leave their houses for “compassionate reasons” such as caring for someone