NSW Health Minister disappointed at border closures. Exponential growth in case numbers! What did he expect?

The Age reports: NSW Police Minister David Elliott says other premiers, including Victoria’s Daniel Andrews, have over-reacted to the situation in NSW.

“I’m actually quite personally disappointed [with the decision],” he told Sky News. “We only closed the border with Victoria when [they] were in the hundreds [of cases], and we went from 18 to 10 yesterday.”

Police Minister David Elliot on Sky News on Friday morning.CREDIT:SKY NEWS

In fact, there are now 170 cases in NSW, which means that numbers are growing exponentially. This is a sure sign that the virus is taking hold in the New South Wales population.

The NSW Health Department website reported that there were 109 cases of COVID-19 reported in NSW with a symptom onset date in week ending 19 December. Of these, two-thirds (73/109) were locally-acquired infections.

David Elliot maybe disappointed but, what is more disappointing is that he, or his department, don’t seem to be able to get the numbers right. This only creates confusion and ultimately undermines the credibility of the health authorities.

Given that the current rising numbers in Victoria appears to be a result of someone travelling from New South Wales, he can be reassured that the people who live in Melbourne will be very happy with this restriction.

This growth rate will continue until the most stringent of quarantine conditions are imposed on the Greater Sydney area as a bare minimum.

NSW Health Minister disappointed at border closures. Exponential growth in case numbers… what did he expect?

The Age reports: NSW Police Minister David Elliott says other premiers, including Victoria’s Daniel Andrews, have over-reacted to the situation in NSW.

“I’m actually quite personally disappointed [with the decision],” he told Sky News. “We only closed the border with Victoria when [they] were in the hundreds [of cases], and we went from 18 to 10 yesterday.”

Police Minister David Elliot on Sky News on Friday morning.CREDIT:SKY NEWS

In fact, there are now 170 cases in NSW, which means that numbers are growing exponentially. This is a sure sign that the virus is taking hold in the New South Wales population.

The NSW Health Department website reported that there were 109 cases of COVID-19 reported in NSW with a symptom onset date in week ending 19 December. Of these, two-thirds (73/109) were locally-acquired infections.

David Elliot maybe disappointed but, what is more disappointing is that he, or his department, don’t seem to be able to get the numbers right. This only creates confusion and ultimately undermines the credibility of the health authorities.

Given that the current rising numbers in Victoria appears to be a result of someone travelling from New South Wales, he can be reassured that the people who live in Melbourne will be very happy with this restriction.

This growth rate will continue until the most stringent of quarantine conditions are imposed on the Greater Sydney area as a bare minimum.

More hot air from Boris Johnson as the Covid crisis deepens in the UK.

The Age reports Under questioning from MPs, Health Secretary Hancock told the Commons, that there were 500,000 doses ready to be administered from Monday.

This was a significant shortfall from the 30 million target that Britain set itself for September.

Johnson declined to set a weekly vaccination target when questioned: “We will have tens of millions of doses by the end of March,” he said.

“We are still in the tunnel of this pandemic, the light, however, is not merely visible: thanks to an extraordinary feat of British engineering if you like the tunnel has been shortened,” Johnson said.

“We are moving faster through it, and that gives me great confidence about the future in the spring,” he said.

And schools will not be closed

The government has resisted calls to close schools and said students would return to the classroom next week, despite a mutated version of COVID-19 spreading out of control across the country prompting calls for children to be kept home.

Another outsourcing shambles. How long before governments learn that PPP is a flawed business model?

The Age reports State government road debacle leaves project stalled, contractors owed millions.

The project was designed to cut congestion in the West

The dynamics of the road project, while more complex and complicated, are exactly the same as those in the smaller PPP in Auckland in the 1990s.

In 1997, I presented the System Dynamics conference in Istanbul entitled

The Dynamics of Garbage Collection: A Case Study of Privatisation.

The paper modelled the dynamics of outsourcing garbage collections in the Auckland Council region.

The conclusion was “A subsequent analysis of other possible scenarios suggests that the policy of privatisation was seriously flawed. The paper suggests that the dynamics of the competitive environment may ultimately determine the success or failure of efforts to privatisation.”

In this case study, it is the actions of the competitor, whose sole motive is profit, and not the Council, that determine the dynamics and the success of Council policy, in the marketAll-place.

In other words, governments tend to lose control of projects when they enter the competitive environment.

The Age article appears to indicate that there were some significant shortcomings in the awarding of contracts to companies that did not have the capability or capacity to perform the required work.

The subsequent failure and liquidation of one of these companies had a knock-on effect has left suppliers and contractors facing financial ruin.

The state government is currently providing massive financial support, which will not disclose, to the lead contractor.

The technical term for this type of mistake is failure to perform “Due Diligence.”

When the project was first announced Treasurer Tim Pallas said the project was outstanding value for money, with a benefit-cost ratio of 4.4, meaning it will return $4.40 for every dollar spent. “What we’re expecting out of the private sector is not just to build some roads but to make sure they’re effectively managed and operating well,” Mr Pallas said.

With the Northern beaches in lockdown, British backpackers party on at Bronte.

It must be frustrating for the people under lockdown in the Northern beaches to see the behaviour of a small group of British backpackers at Bronte.

They gathered in significant numbers because they thought that Gladys had told them it was all right to party.

She hadn’t but the messages are mixed

There needs to be a stronger message than this:

NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard not happy about images of backpackers  said the behaviour “cannot go on. There is still a major risk for us with COVID, and my message to those people and people who know any of those people, is tell them to stop it, cut it out, or you may well end up with the virus itself … or you may end up being part of a super spreader event.”

Christmas and New Year will be a disaster in terms of the spread of Covid-19 unless the NSW government takes a very strong line on public gatherings by banning them.

There needs to be a very strong message sent out, particularly about the fireworks on New Year’s Eve.

My bet is that the government’s message will be:

“We advise people not to attend the fireworks. We would really like you not to go.”

The message should be:

“The fireworks are cancelled.”

International airlines protests Victoria’s quarantine regulations. Will re-route flights to Sydney!

Unhappy with the restrictions in Covid-19 free Victoria, airlines are going to fly to Sydney which is poised on the brink of a second wave of the pandemic.

This really redefines stupidity.

The Age reports “International airlines say Victoria’s new COVID-19 testing and quarantine regime for flight crew is unworkable and have threatened to suspend services to Melbourne in response to the state’s attempt to plug a gap in its coronavirus defences.

US carrier United Airlines, Japan Airlines and Royal Brunei have made the loudest protests against the new policy.

Two international airline crew members tested positive to the virus and were placed in hotel quarantine this week”

What that means is that the plane full of international travellers had at least two Covid positive people on board. If they were flight attendants then they would have been moving through the whole plane.

Presumably they were masked. (?) However, we do not know how many other people were infected on that flight.

The more important problem is that these flights are coming from Singapore and presumably the passengers are in transit from Europe.

It is entirely proper that both the Victoria and NSW exercise the most stringent of quarantining regulations for crew and travellers on international flights.

Anything less is a recipe for disaster.

And apparently a Flight Crew representative said that how crew managed their personal quarantine was a “lifestyle choice.”

No. It’s question of the potential for a third wave of Covid -19 Victoria.

Which is much more important than the lifestyle choices of some pampered crew member of international airline.

PS Victoria ends coronavirus hotel quarantine exemption for international airline crews

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The White House calls the vaccine the “Trump vaccine.” Will people be immunised against Donald Trump?

It is an unbelievably stupid idea. Fearing immunity to Donald Trump, Trump supporters will probably refuse to be immunised. 

SMH headline Americans will be taking ‘Trump Vaccine’, says White House spokeswoman

 It’s the Trump vaccine,” Press secretary Kayleigh McEnany McEnany insisted.

White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany: It should be called “Trump Vaccine.”CREDIT:AP

The White House has again claimed credit for the rapid development of coronavirus immunisations, with the President’s top spokesperson branding the forthcoming shots as the “Trump vaccine”.

This type of stupidity will certainly hamper serious efforts to get the bulk of the population vaccinated.

It will certainly have the risk of beginning a conspiracy theory that the vaccine is an attempt by the Deep State to stop Republicans voting for Donald Trump and turn them into Democrats.

The side effects would be unimaginable.

Yet another superb effort holding the media’s attention by the Trump administration.

The White House calls the vaccine the “Trump vaccine.” Will people be immunised against Donald Trump?

It is an unbelievably stupid idea. Fearing immunity to Donald Trump, Trump supporters will probably refuse to be immunised.

SMH headline Americans will be taking ‘Trump Vaccine’, says White House spokeswoman

 It’s the Trump vaccine,” Press secretary Kayleigh McEnany McEnany insisted.

White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany: It should be called “Trump Vaccine.”CREDIT:AP

The White House has again claimed credit for the rapid development of coronavirus immunisations, with the President’s top spokesperson branding the forthcoming shots as the “Trump vaccine”.

This type of stupidity will certainly hamper serious efforts to get the bulk of the population vaccinated.

It will certainly have the risk of beginning a conspiracy theory that the vaccine is an attempt by the Deep State to stop Republicans voting for Donald Trump and turn them into Democrats.

The side effects would be unimaginable.

Yet another superb effort holding the media’s attention by the Trump administration.

Australian households will need to spend their savings and their tax cuts to get the economy moving.

The Age reports: The economy grew by 3.3 per cent in the September quarter as consumers flooded to re-opened stores or their online portals to buy new clothes, shoes and poached free-range eggs on sourdough

But they could have spent even more. While increasing their expenditure, consumers also socked away billions in their bank accounts – in real terms losing money on their investment – out of fear.

Since February, households have saved an extra $110 billion in the nation’s banks.

Job insecurity and fears of a return of Covid-19 lift household savings

It is going to be necessary for that extra $110 billion to start circulating in the economy. It’s the multiplier effect that is important.

More people buy more smashed avocado and the staff in the café work more hours. They, in turn, spend more money and the people they spend with then spend more money as well.

The opposite is also true. If consumers don’t spend more money, then others don’t get the benefit of that spending and are unable to spend themselves.

It’s a question of confidence. If households and individuals are confident that their jobs are secure and the economy won’t be forced back into lockdown, then they are much more likely to spend their savings.

The same will be true of the scheduled tax cuts. If these go into savings, then Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s whole strategy comes tumbling down and tax cuts have been very expensive budgetary disaster.